Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 2.787893 2.985239 3.197294 3.443451 3.723079 4.032976 4.405396
2025-02-23 2.494117 2.757056 3.055658 3.424445 3.874348 4.414691 5.127990
2025-03-02 2.300968 2.597077 2.945988 3.395881 3.973975 4.712487 5.765400
2025-03-09 2.157867 2.474082 2.857343 3.368570 4.053866 4.976500 6.386085
2025-03-16 2.052735 2.384654 2.796665 3.362641 4.150535 5.264155 7.084131
2025-03-23 1.985301 2.334874 2.778719 3.406023 4.312732 5.660177 8.029433
2025-03-30 1.891810 2.244178 2.698773 3.354559 4.329042 5.833494 8.637831
2025-04-06 1.808722 2.161455 2.622806 3.300324 4.332161 5.981519 9.231314
2025-04-13 1.721222 2.067985 2.526123 3.207913 4.265723 6.002610 9.580262
2025-04-20 1.685535 2.041596 2.519269 3.244766 4.403522 6.389738 10.796066
2025-04-27 1.662338 2.030386 2.532037 3.310490 4.593273 6.899734 12.483945
2025-05-04 1.639185 2.017642 2.541164 3.370238 4.778346 7.434197 14.493367
2025-05-11 1.590500 1.967915 2.495243 3.342050 4.810903 7.678122 15.860458
2025-05-18 1.547278 1.924097 2.455738 3.321232 4.854397 7.954111 17.504238
2025-05-25 1.505482 1.880511 2.414241 3.293912 4.882416 8.201320 19.231088
2025-06-01 1.466930 1.840021 2.375330 3.267945 4.909771 8.452412 21.186492
2025-06-08 1.436054 1.809385 2.349757 3.262308 4.975227 8.808277 23.948284
2025-06-15 1.418549 1.797414 2.351898 3.303536 5.137435 9.445551 28.954927
2025-06-22 1.380748 1.754275 2.303882 3.254626 5.110838 9.580444 31.398162
2025-06-29 1.344375 1.712154 2.255873 3.203055 5.074039 9.681793 33.855328
2025-07-06 1.301463 1.659200 2.189145 3.115118 4.953467 9.525625 34.310577
2025-07-13 1.288341 1.650224 2.191352 3.150196 5.099442 10.181271 42.781962
2025-07-20 1.281736 1.650666 2.208322 3.212724 5.312874 11.115541 58.466749